Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM) is overvalued and Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, CALM trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +56%, against -187% for ADM.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $28.71; the price of $82.34 is 187% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $165.29; the price of $73.13 is 56% below that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 2 of 12 signals
| Metric | ADM | CALM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $82.34 | $73.13 |
| Intrinsic value | $28.71 | $165.29 |
| Margin of safety | -187% | +56% |
| Leak Score | 56/100 (9/12) | 100/100 (2/12) |
| Market cap | $39.7B | $3.4B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.5% | 16.6% |
| Operating margin | 2.5% | 11.8% |
| Net margin | 2.1% | 10.9% |
| Return on equity | 7.7% | 12.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| P/E | 22.5x | 11.2x |
| Forward P/E | 14.1x | 24.8x |
| P/B | 1.7x | 1.3x |
| Dividend yield | 2.6% | 0.5% |