Archer Daniels Midland Co (ADM) is overvalued and Adecoagro SA (AGRO) is overvalued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. AGRO is the closer of the two: -50%, against -187% for ADM.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.2% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $28.71; the price of $82.34 is 187% above that value, and 77% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 56/100 on 9 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 6.8% values the shares at $7.30; the price of $10.93 is 50% above that value.
Leak Score 0/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | ADM | AGRO |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Overvalued |
| Price | $82.34 | $10.93 |
| Intrinsic value | $28.71 | $7.30 |
| Margin of safety | -187% | -50% |
| Leak Score | 56/100 (9/12) | 0/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $39.7B | $1.6B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 4.5% | 12.1% |
| Operating margin | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Net margin | 2.1% | 3.1% |
| Return on equity | 7.7% | 3.2% |
| Debt to equity | 0.40 | 1.34 |
| P/E | 22.5x | 34.2x |
| Forward P/E | 14.1x | 9.2x |
| P/B | 1.7x | 0.9x |
| Dividend yield | 2.6% | 2.0% |