Accel Entertainment Inc (ACEL) is undervalued and Churchill Downs Inc (CHDN) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, CHDN trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +59%, against +44% for ACEL.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 8.1% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $20.13; the price of $11.19 is 44% below that value, and 80% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 85/100 on 10 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 7.4% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $191.80; the price of $79.49 is 59% below that value, and 83% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 70/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | ACEL | CHDN |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Undervalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $11.19 | $79.49 |
| Intrinsic value | $20.13 | $191.80 |
| Margin of safety | +44% | +59% |
| Leak Score | 85/100 (10/12) | 70/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $909M | $5.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 33.3% | 22.6% |
| Operating margin | 8.2% | 25.8% |
| Net margin | 4.1% | 13.7% |
| Return on equity | 20.8% | 34.3% |
| Debt to equity | 2.07 | 3.57 |
| P/E | 16.6x | 13.6x |
| Forward P/E | 13.4x | 10.7x |
| P/B | 3.2x | 4.2x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.6% |