Airbnb Inc (ABNB) is overvalued and Trip.com Group Ltd ADR (TCOM) is undervalued.
Against our estimates of intrinsic value, TCOM trades at the wider discount: a margin of safety of +57%, against -93% for ABNB.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $83.63; the price of $161.81 is 93% above that value, and 71% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 71/100 on 6 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 8.5% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $94.77; the price of $40.85 is 57% below that value, and 79% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 100/100 on 3 of 12 signals
| Metric | ABNB | TCOM |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Undervalued |
| Price | $161.81 | $40.85 |
| Intrinsic value | $83.63 | $94.77 |
| Margin of safety | -93% | +57% |
| Leak Score | 71/100 (6/12) | 100/100 (3/12) |
| Market cap | $96.9B | $26.5B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 29.5% | 26.8% |
| Operating margin | 21.2% | 15.9% |
| Net margin | 20.4% | 36.1% |
| Return on equity | 34.5% | 15.3% |
| Debt to equity | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| P/E | 36.8x | 8.5x |
| Forward P/E | 25.9x | 10.2x |
| P/B | 12.2x | 1.2x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.2% |