Airbnb Inc (ABNB) is overvalued and Expedia Group Inc (EXPE) is fairly valued.
Both trade above our estimate of their intrinsic value. EXPE is the closer of the two: -2%, against -93% for ABNB.
Values as of the 22 Sept 2026 close.
Discounting its cash flows at 10.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $83.63; the price of $161.81 is 93% above that value, and 71% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 71/100 on 6 of 12 signals
Discounting its cash flows at 10.8% (average of 3 methods) values the shares at $274.56; the price of $280.70 is 2% above that value, and 70% of that value comes from beyond year five.
Leak Score 65/100 on 10 of 12 signals
| Metric | ABNB | EXPE |
|---|---|---|
| Verdict | Overvalued | Fairly valued |
| Price | $161.81 | $280.70 |
| Intrinsic value | $83.63 | $274.56 |
| Margin of safety | -93% | -2% |
| Leak Score | 71/100 (6/12) | 65/100 (10/12) |
| Market cap | $96.9B | $33.7B |
| Revenue growth, 5 years | 29.5% | 23.2% |
| Operating margin | 21.2% | 16.6% |
| Net margin | 20.4% | 13.0% |
| Return on equity | 34.5% | 199.1% |
| Debt to equity | 0.32 | 4.70 |
| P/E | 36.8x | 17.5x |
| Forward P/E | 25.9x | 11.5x |
| P/B | 12.2x | 27.9x |
| Dividend yield | — | 0.5% |